OpinionEdgeBot

Cross-venue arbitrage detection and execution tool for prediction markets.
Monitors Opinion and Polymarket orderbooks in real-time, finds matching events via LLM, and alerts on pricing discrepancies.

Status: Pre-alpha · Actively developed · Not financial advice

How It Works

┌──────────────┐    ┌──────────────┐
│  Polymarket  │    │   Opinion    │
│  Gamma API   │    │   OpenAPI    │
│ (all events) │    │(all markets) │
└──────┬───────┘    └──────┬───────┘
       │                   │
       └────────┬──────────┘
                ▼
        ┌───────────────┐
        │  Claude API   │  ← LLM market matching (every 10 min)
        └───────┬───────┘
                ▼
        ┌───────────────┐
        │   Scanner     │  ← Orderbook polling (every 10s)
        └───────┬───────┘
                ▼
        ┌───────────────┐
        │   Telegram    │  ← Alert + EXECUTE / SKIP buttons
        └───────┬───────┘
                ▼
    ┌───────────────────────┐
    │  Hybrid Execution     │
    │  🤖 PM = auto (API)   │
    │  👤 OP = manual alert │
    └───────────────────────┘

1. Discover — fetches all active events from Polymarket (Gamma API) and Opinion (OpenAPI), filtered to events ending within a configurable window (default: 3 days)
2. Match — sends market titles to Claude API to find identical events across platforms (confidence ≥ 85%)
3. Scan — polls both orderbooks every 10 seconds, calculates cross-venue edge
4. Alert — sends Telegram notification with edge %, estimated profit, and action buttons
5. Execute — on confirmation: places Polymarket order via API, shows detailed manual instruction for Opinion leg
6. Remind — periodically reminds if the Opinion leg hasn't been confirmed

Key Features

• Full market auto-discovery — no manual market configuration needed
• LLM-powered matching — handles different wording, languages, and slight variations
• Hybrid execution — Polymarket auto, Opinion manual (no Opinion trading API required)
• Dynamic position sizing — scales with edge magnitude and available balance
• Human-in-the-loop — every trade requires explicit Telegram confirmation
• Proxy support — HTTP/HTTPS/SOCKS5 for geo-restricted access
• Risk controls — min edge, max trade size, balance cap, liquidity floor, dedup

Opinion API Usage

This tool uses the Opinion OpenAPI in read-only mode only:

Endpoint	Purpose	Frequency
GET /market	Discover active markets	Every 10 min
GET /token/orderbook	Bid/ask depth for edge detection	Every 10s per matched pair
GET /token/latest-price	Price monitoring	On-demand

No order placement, position management, or on-chain operations are performed through the API. All Opinion trades are executed manually through the web interface.

Estimated load: ~2-5 requests/second (well within 15 TPS limit).

Quick Start

python3 -m venv .venv && source .venv/bin/activate
pip install py-clob-client python-telegram-bot requests python-dotenv

cp env.example .env
# Fill in: TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN, TELEGRAM_ALLOWED_CHAT_ID,
#          CLAUDE_API_KEY, PM_PRIVATE_KEY, PM_FUNDER, OPINION_APIKEY

python arb_bot.py

Configuration

Variable	Description	Default
DRY_RUN	Simulate without real orders	true
MIN_EDGE	Minimum spread to trigger alert	0.03 (3%)
MAX_TRADE_USD	Absolute cap per trade	$50
MAX_BALANCE_PCT	Max % of balance per trade	15%
MAX_EVENT_DAYS	Only events ending within N days	3
SCAN_INTERVAL_SEC	Orderbook polling interval	10s
PROXY_URL	HTTP/SOCKS5 proxy	—

Bot Commands

Command	Description
/start	Bot status and matched pairs count
/pairs	List matched market pairs
/balance	Polymarket balance + sizing examples
/stats	Today's P&L and trade counts
/history	Last 10 trades with status
/rematch	Force re-matching via Claude
/mode	Current config and proxy status

Roadmap

• Auto-discovery of all markets on both platforms
• LLM-based cross-venue market matching
• Dynamic edge-based position sizing
• Polymarket auto-execution via CLOB API
• Telegram alerts with manual Opinion instructions
• Reminder system for open positions
• Proxy support (HTTP/SOCKS5)
• Opinion CLOB SDK integration (when API key available)
• WebSocket orderbook streaming (lower latency)
• Multi-leg execution with auto-retry
• Web dashboard for P&L tracking

Disclaimer

This software is provided as-is for educational and research purposes. Prediction markets involve significant risk — event outcomes are binary and you can lose your entire position. Always conduct your own research and only trade with capital you can afford to lose. The authors are not responsible for any financial losses.

License

MIT